Investment Outlook (Q3/2013)

Do you want the good news or the bad news first?

• The good news is that the US is showing decent economic growth of over 2%. This despite the fact that both higher taxes and lower government spending are putting around 1.5% drag on the economy (c. 1% from tax increases and c. 0.5% from reduced spending).
• Higher growth, higher taxes and lower spending together are leaving their virtuous mark on the government deficit which now seems firmly set on a downwards course, with the deficit declining from 7% to around 5.4% in 2013 and declining further to 4.7% in 2014. The household sector has reduced debt by 17% since the crisis peak in 2008 which equates to almost 4% per year in debt reduction. Add to this that unemployment in the US has also declined and that real estate prices have started to rise again it is all starting to look like normality is back again and that just 5 years after the crisis. We thought it would take longer.  

So what bad news could there be…